Liquid Cooling Market Forecast Gaps Start With the 2025 Base

MarketsandMarkets publishes USD 4.07 billion for the 2026 data center liquid cooling market and a 31.5% CAGR. Compounded for seven years, 4.07 × 1.315 to the seventh power returns USD 27.7 billion, which reproduces its published 2033 total of USD 27.65 billion. Grand View Research starts from USD 8.2 billion in 2026 at 20.1%, and 8.2 × 1.201 to the seventh power returns USD 29.6 billion against a published USD 29.5 billion (the difference is rounding in the rate). The two 2033 totals sit within 7% of each other while the two growth rates sit 11.4 percentage points apart, so the disagreement in this liquid cooling market forecast lives almost entirely in the starting point.

Identical forecast windows, a 2.3x starting gap

The usual explanation is that research firms anchor on different base years. The pages say otherwise. Every figure here comes from the free public summary pages of the 2026 editions; the paid report tables were not read. Grand View lists a 2025 base with annual figures for 2026 to 2033. The MarketsandMarkets scope table gives a base year of 2025 and a forecast period of 2026 to 2033. Mordor Intelligence values the market in 2025 and forecasts 2026 to 2031. Timing is the one variable held constant across all three.

Table 1. Published liquid cooling market values, three firms (USD billion)

* Estimate inside a forecast report. CAGR runs 2026 to 2033 for Grand View and MarketsandMarkets, 2026 to 2031 for Mordor. Rows sorted by 2025 value.

Source: Grand View Research, “Data Center Liquid Cooling Market Size Report, 2026 – 2033” (2026); MarketsandMarkets, “Data Center Liquid Cooling Market Report 2026-2033” (2026); Mordor Intelligence, “Data Center Liquid Cooling Market Size, Companies & Share Analysis” (figures stated as of 2026)

Grand View’s 2025 value of USD 6.7 billion is 2.3 times the MarketsandMarkets value of USD 2.88 billion (6.7 ÷ 2.88 = 2.33). Grand View reports to one decimal, so the ratio carries that rounding.

Mordor sits between them at USD 5.52 billion. By 2033 the two firms that reach that year are 1.07 apart (29.5 ÷ 27.65), and a gap that shrinks this far is a gap in the opening estimate, not in a shared view of where the market ends up. Mordor’s window stops two years earlier, so its USD 18.79 billion stays out of that comparison.

Source: Grand View Research, Data Center Liquid Cooling Market Size Report, 2026 – 2033; MarketsandMarkets, Data Center Liquid Cooling Market Report 2026-2033; Mordor Intelligence, Data Center Liquid Cooling Market Size, Companies & Share Analysis (all listed under References).

A smaller base forces a steeper curve

A CAGR over n years is (end ÷ start) to the power 1/n, minus 1, with n = 7 for 2026 to 2033. Holding each firm’s 2033 total fixed and swapping the 2026 starting values shows how much of the 11.4-point gap the start accounts for.

MarketsandMarkets’ end point from Grand View’s start: 27.65 ÷ 8.2 = 3.372; 3.372 to the power 1/7 = 1.190; CAGR = 19.0%.

Grand View’s end point from MarketsandMarkets’ start: 29.5 ÷ 4.07 = 7.248; 7.248 to the power 1/7 = 1.327; CAGR = 32.7%.

With the start held equal, the two rates differ by 1.1 to 1.2 points instead of 11.4, so about nine-tenths of the gap is the starting value (1 − 1.15 ÷ 11.4 = 0.90). These are arithmetic counterfactuals, not forecasts from either firm. A reader who sets 31.5% beside 20.1% as two views of how fast adoption moves is comparing starting sizes.

The first year shows where the curves differ. MarketsandMarkets’ 2026 value is 41.3% above its 2025 value (4.07 ÷ 2.88 = 1.413), while Grand View’s is 22.4% above (8.2 ÷ 6.7 = 1.224) and Mordor’s is 22.6% above (6.77 ÷ 5.52 = 1.226). The 2025 and 2026 values are both model outputs inside forecast reports, so that step is an estimate and not a revenue count.

Parent cooling totals expose the scope gap

Each firm also sells a report on the whole data center cooling market, and those totals differ by more than the liquid figures do. Table 2 divides each firm’s liquid report by its cooling report.

Table 2. Liquid cooling as a share of each firm’s cooling market (USD billion; %)

* Derived: liquid report value divided by cooling report value. The two reports are separate products and segment boundaries are not published on the pages read. Window-end cooling totals: 128.3 (Grand View, 2033), 37.62 (MarketsandMarkets, 2033), 28.54 (Mordor, 2031). Mordor’s cooling page states liquid-based systems at 46.60% of 2025 cooling. Rows sorted by 2025 cooling total.

Source: Grand View Research, “Data Center Cooling Market Size & Share Report, 2026-2033” (2026); MarketsandMarkets, “Data Center Cooling Market Report 2026-2033” (2026); Mordor Intelligence, “Data Center Cooling Market Size, Trends & Growth – 2032” (figures stated as of 2026); liquid values from Table 1 sources

In 2025 Grand View sizes total cooling at USD 26.3 billion, MarketsandMarkets at USD 11.45 billion and Mordor at USD 10.80 billion.

That is a spread of 2.4 times (26.3 ÷ 10.80 = 2.43). Grand View’s liquid share is 25.5% and MarketsandMarkets’ is 25.2%, so those two scale together, and Grand View’s boundary is wider across cooling as a whole, liquid included.

By the end of each window the shares part ways. Grand View’s liquid market shrinks as a share of its cooling market because total cooling grows at 22.3% against 20.1% for liquid. MarketsandMarkets’ liquid market climbs to nearly three quarters of its cooling total because cooling grows at 16.1% against 31.5% for liquid. One firm has liquid losing ground inside its cooling market and the other has it taking most of it, which makes each liquid forecast inseparable from a forecast about air cooling.

The table has two limits. It divides a standalone liquid report by a separate cooling report, and neither cooling page publishes the dollar size of its liquid segment. MarketsandMarkets’ cooling page does quote 31.5% for its liquid technology segment, the same rate as the standalone report.

Mordor’s two reports do not reconcile exactly. Its cooling page puts liquid-based systems at 46.60% of the 2025 cooling total, or USD 5.03 billion (10.80 × 0.466), against USD 5.52 billion in its liquid report.

Mordor’s cooling page names causes for such gaps in its own words: what is counted as cooling, the years used for currency conversion, whether pricing is held stable, and whether liquid cooling, retrofit spending and adjacent facility HVAC are bundled in. Grand View’s description of what suppliers in this market sell runs from direct-to-chip systems and immersion to coolant distribution units and rear door heat exchangers, liquid-cooled racks and heat recovery, and the page does not say which of those enter the revenue figure.

Source: Grand View Research, Data Center Cooling Market Size & Share Report, 2026-2033; MarketsandMarkets, Data Center Cooling Market Report 2026-2033; Mordor Intelligence, Data Center Cooling Market Size, Trends & Growth – 2032 (all listed under References).

The base-year explanation fails and scope survives

The planning claim has two halves. The first, that firms use different base years, fails on all three pages, because every one uses 2025. The second, that definitions differ, survives only as inference. The pages show total cooling markets 2.4 times apart and opposite liquid-share paths, but none publishes a line-by-line list of what its liquid revenue includes.

Mordor’s liquid page offers a second candidate, attributed to an unnamed publisher whose 2025 estimate it lists at USD 4.80 billion: a more conservative adoption ramp outside hyperscale sites and an undercount of retrofit-driven demand. That is Mordor’s description of a competitor and cannot be checked, though it fits the way adoption barriers slow rollouts outside purpose-built halls.

The practical reading follows from the arithmetic. Grand View’s and MarketsandMarkets’ 2033 totals agree within 7%, and the 20.1% and 31.5% rates mostly restate the gap in 2026.

Any market projection carried into a business case should name the firm, the report year, the base year, the end year and the scope, and should be compared with other firms in a single year. On this evidence neither page can be called wrong from public information, and neither can serve alone as the size of the market. The defensible statement is a range for each year, and the width of the 2025 range, a factor of 2.3, does more damage to planning than any growth rate.

References

• Data Center Liquid Cooling Market Size Report, 2026 – 2033 / Grand View Research / page metadata dated 2026-06-15 / https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/data-center-liquid-cooling-market-report
• Data Center Cooling Market Size & Share Report, 2026-2033 / Grand View Research / page metadata dated 2026-06-05 / https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/data-center-cooling-market
• Data Center Liquid Cooling Market Report 2026-2033 / MarketsandMarkets / page metadata dated 2026-03-30 / https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/data-center-liquid-cooling-market-84374345.html
• Data Center Cooling Market Report 2026-2033 / MarketsandMarkets / page metadata dated 2026-08-10 / https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/data-center-cooling-solutions-market-1038.html
• Data Center Liquid Cooling Market Size, Companies & Share Analysis / Mordor Intelligence / undated page, figures stated as of 2026 / https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/data-center-liquid-cooling-market
• Data Center Cooling Market Size, Trends & Growth – 2032 / Mordor Intelligence / undated page, figures stated as of 2026 / https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/global-data-center-cooling-market-industry